HorseIQ

Daily evidence check

Adds one settled or in-flight slice to the wider model-performance view. Daily quality and settlement context show whether this date should influence model-improvement thinking.

Viewing analysis
Thu 21 May 2026
Owner-facing quality, shortlist, and model diagnostics built from the shared analysis helpers for this date.
Previous day: Wed 20 May 2026Thu 21 May 2026Next day: Fri 22 May 2026Overall analysis
Daily Analysis supports the aggregate model read. Treat isolated daily wins, losses, or suspicious data as evidence quality context before changing any prediction assumptions.
Workflow
Unknown
Latest recorded workflow status for this day.
Races
44
Normalized race count used by downstream logic.
Runners
403
Normalized runner count for the day.
Suspicious Checks
128
Combined count of suspicious-value flags in the quality review.
Feature Rows
403
Top daily feature rows available for owner review.
Settled Analysis
6
Matched settled shortlist rows available for analysis-side review.

Evidence reliability

Adds one settled or in-flight slice to the wider model-performance view. Use this day to qualify the aggregate read, not to rewrite the model on its own.

Watch

Workflow state

Workflow: Unknown

Races: 44

Runners: 403

Caution

Suspicious Checks

Flags: 128

Suspicious or missing values reduce how much this day should influence model-improvement decisions.

Promising

Settled contribution

Matched settled rows: 6

Settled rows are useful as one contribution to the aggregate model-performance picture.

Baseline Win Probability Bracket Analysis

Based on baseline model win probabilities (pure model, not UI display probability, not Core signal).

Metric: baselineWinProbability.winProbabilityPercent | Sources: baseline_model_archive | Window: 2026-03-20 to 2026-04-10

All runners

BandQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
20-29.9%2235625.11%0n/a+11.945.35%
30%+341235.29%0n/a+16.5048.53%

Shortlist-only

BandQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
No shortlist-only baseline bracket rows are available in the current saved artifacts.

Source breakdown

All runners

20-29.9%
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_model_archive2235625.11%0n/a+11.945.35%
30%+
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_model_archive341235.29%0n/a+16.5048.53%

Shortlist-only

No shortlist-only baseline source breakdown rows are available in the current saved artifacts.

Win Prediction Bracket Analysis (Displayed Probability)

Based on displayed UI win probability (displayWinProbabilityPercent). Includes baseline-driven and fallback probabilities.

Metric: displayWinProbabilityPercent | Sources: baseline_market_anchor, baseline_only, core_only_fallback | Window: 2026-03-20 to 2026-04-11

All runners

BandQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
20-29.9%2227533.78%11652.25%+32.9426.78%
30%+231043.48%1252.17%-2.59-32.39%

Shortlist-only

BandQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
20-29.9%521630.77%2751.92%-7.38-29.50%
30%+6233.33%350.00%0.00n/a

Source breakdown

All runners

20-29.9%
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_market_anchor1756235.43%8850.29%+29.4933.14%
baseline_only33824.24%2163.64%+7.7029.62%
core_only_fallback14535.71%750.00%-4.25-53.12%
30%+
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_market_anchor17741.18%952.94%-1.50-30.00%
baseline_only4250.00%250.00%-2.00-100.00%
core_only_fallback2150.00%150.00%+0.9190.91%

Shortlist-only

20-29.9%
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_market_anchor351131.43%1851.43%-8.12-73.86%
baseline_only8225.00%562.50%+3.0037.50%
core_only_fallback9333.33%444.44%-2.25-37.50%
30%+
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_market_anchor5240.00%240.00%0.00n/a
core_only_fallback100.00%1100.00%0.00n/a

Class & Handicap Ratings Flags

Analysis-only Class & Handicap Ratings flags; forward-validation pending. These flags do not alter shortlist inclusion, ranking, stakes, fair odds, gates, or Core %.

Flagged runners: 4 of 6 matched shortlist runner(s). Source: class_handicap_ratings.
CodeSignalDirectionStrengthRunnersWinners
flat_turf_class_zero_win_rateFlat Turf class-row win rate 0%NegativeStrong42
TimeCourseHorseRace codeSignalEvidence
14:10CatterickTaaklamFlat TurfFlat Turf class-row win rate 0%Class: 0/1 (0.00%); Within OR captured: 0/1 (0.00%); Within OR last 5: 0/1 (0.00%)
14:40CatterickRouaneFlat TurfFlat Turf class-row win rate 0%Class: 0/1 (0.00%); Within OR captured: 0/0 (n/a); Within OR last 5: 0/0 (n/a)
15:10CatterickMoostarFlat TurfFlat Turf class-row win rate 0%Class: 0/8 (0.00%); Within OR captured: 0/11 (0.00%); Within OR last 5: 0/5 (0.00%)
15:30HaydockEuphoniaFlat TurfFlat Turf class-row win rate 0%Class: 0/3 (0.00%); Within OR captured: 0/2 (0.00%); Within OR last 5: 0/2 (0.00%)

Daily Segment Performance

Fast read on what worked for this settled day across the main win-chance, fair-vs-market, and shortlist price segments. Rows with fewer than 3 qualifiers stay hidden.

Segment labelQualifiersWinnersSR%SP ROI%
fair < marketNEUTRAL3133.33%150.00%

Core Win Chance Accuracy

More settled runners are needed before the core-backed fair-odds model can be judged as too bullish or too conservative.

Core fair-odds calibration is still too thin

Predicted Core Win %

Average: 29.64%
Matched: 6

Actual Win %

Average: 33.33%
Winners: 2

Prediction Gap

Gap: -3.69%
Core fair % bandMatchedAvg predictedWinnersActual win %Gap
0-9.9%16.67%00.00%6.67%
10-19.9%116.67%1100.00%-83.33%
20-29.9%224.88%00.00%24.88%
30%+252.38%150.00%2.38%

Signal Insights

Bucket-level signal review that was previously shown on the results page, now kept with the rest of the interpretation layer.

Field size

Performance by number of runners

Bucket
2-7
Matched
4
Winners
1
Win %
25.00%
Placed
1
Place %
25.00%
SP +/-
-2.56
ROI
-64.00%
Bucket
8-15
Matched
2
Winners
1
Win %
50.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
+5.50
ROI
275.00%
Bucket
16+
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Race class

Performance by exact race class / grade where available

Bucket
Class 3
Matched
1
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-1.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
Class 4
Matched
2
Winners
1
Win %
50.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-0.56
ROI
-28.00%
Bucket
Class 5
Matched
2
Winners
1
Win %
50.00%
Placed
1
Place %
50.00%
SP +/-
+5.50
ROI
275.00%
Bucket
Class 6
Matched
1
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-1.00
ROI
-100.00%

Race overlap

Performance when multiple shortlisted runners met in the same race

Bucket
Single pick
Matched
6
Winners
2
Win %
33.33%
Placed
1
Place %
16.67%
SP +/-
+2.94
ROI
49.00%
Bucket
2 in race
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
3+ in race
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Finish status

How selections ended the race, including non-finishers

Bucket
Winner
Matched
2
Winners
2
Win %
100.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
+6.94
ROI
347.00%
Bucket
Placed
Matched
1
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
1
Place %
100.00%
SP +/-
-1.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
Finished unplaced
Matched
3
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-3.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
PU
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
UR
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
F
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
BD
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
RO
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
Other non-finisher
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Beaten distance

How competitive selections were by finishing margin

Bucket
0-2L
Matched
5
Winners
2
Win %
40.00%
Placed
1
Place %
20.00%
SP +/-
+3.94
ROI
78.80%
Bucket
2-5L
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
5-10L
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
10L+
Matched
1
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-1.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
Non-finisher
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Trainer month

Exploratory signal review

Bucket
10
Matched
6
Winners
2
Win %
33.33%
Placed
1
Place %
16.67%
SP +/-
+2.94
ROI
49.00%
Bucket
15
Matched
6
Winners
2
Win %
33.33%
Placed
1
Place %
16.67%
SP +/-
+2.94
ROI
49.00%
Bucket
20
Matched
1
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-1.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
25
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
30
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Jockey month

Exploratory signal review

Bucket
10
Matched
5
Winners
2
Win %
40.00%
Placed
1
Place %
20.00%
SP +/-
+3.94
ROI
78.80%
Bucket
15
Matched
1
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-1.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
20
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
25
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
30
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Signal base %

Trainer/jockey base only

Bucket
10
Matched
6
Winners
2
Win %
33.33%
Placed
1
Place %
16.67%
SP +/-
+2.94
ROI
49.00%
Bucket
15
Matched
4
Winners
2
Win %
50.00%
Placed
1
Place %
25.00%
SP +/-
+4.94
ROI
123.50%
Bucket
20
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
25
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
30
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Horse boost

Horse-form uplift

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
2
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
3
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
4
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Ranked %

Final ordering score

Bucket
10
Matched
6
Winners
2
Win %
33.33%
Placed
1
Place %
16.67%
SP +/-
+2.94
ROI
49.00%
Bucket
15
Matched
4
Winners
2
Win %
50.00%
Placed
1
Place %
25.00%
SP +/-
+4.94
ROI
123.50%
Bucket
20
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
25
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
30
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Value verdict

Internal fair-odds model

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Short verdict

Internal fair-odds model

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Value edge %

Internal fair-odds model

Bucket
n/a
Matched
6
Winners
2
Win %
33.33%
Placed
1
Place %
16.67%
SP +/-
+2.94
ROI
49.00%
Bucket
10
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
20
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Weighted to Win

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Beaten Fav LTO

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Headgear

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Class dropper

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Recent winner

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Stable switcher

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a