HorseIQ

Overall Analysis Review

Cross-day analysis home for the settled shortlist archive. This page keeps the interpretation layer separate from Results, then repeats a lighter monthly subset so progression is easier to scan over time.

Viewing analysis
Thu 07 May 2026
Owner-facing quality, shortlist, and model diagnostics built from the shared analysis helpers for this date.
Previous day: Wed 06 May 2026Thu 07 May 2026
Use this page when you want the archive-level read rather than a single-day view. The overall sections show the broad direction of the current shortlist analysis, and the month panels help check whether that direction is staying consistent.
Settled Days
49
Daily settled analysis files included in the overall view.
Matched Rows
573
Matched shortlisted runners included in the aggregate analysis.
Winners
132
Aggregate strike rate: 23.04%.
SP ROI
-14.30%
SP profit: -92.21.
Captured ROI
-2.67%
Captured-price profit: -16.11.
High-Trust Days
21
Descriptive-only days: 28.

Baseline Win Probability Bracket Analysis

Based on baseline model win probabilities (pure model, not UI display probability, not Core signal).

Metric: baselineWinProbability.winProbabilityPercent | Sources: baseline_model_archive | Window: 2026-03-20 to 2026-04-10

All runners

BandQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
20-29.9%2235625.11%0n/a+11.945.35%
30%+341235.29%0n/a+16.5048.53%

Shortlist-only

BandQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
No shortlist-only baseline bracket rows are available in the current saved artifacts.

Source breakdown

All runners

20-29.9%
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_model_archive2235625.11%0n/a+11.945.35%
30%+
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_model_archive341235.29%0n/a+16.5048.53%

Shortlist-only

No shortlist-only baseline source breakdown rows are available in the current saved artifacts.

Win Prediction Bracket Analysis (Displayed Probability)

Based on displayed UI win probability (displayWinProbabilityPercent). Includes baseline-driven and fallback probabilities.

Metric: displayWinProbabilityPercent | Sources: baseline_market_anchor, baseline_only, core_only_fallback | Window: 2026-03-20 to 2026-04-11

All runners

BandQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
20-29.9%2227533.78%11652.25%+32.9426.78%
30%+231043.48%1252.17%-2.59-32.39%

Shortlist-only

BandQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
20-29.9%521630.77%2751.92%-7.38-29.50%
30%+6233.33%350.00%0.00n/a

Source breakdown

All runners

20-29.9%
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_market_anchor1756235.43%8850.29%+29.4933.14%
baseline_only33824.24%2163.64%+7.7029.62%
core_only_fallback14535.71%750.00%-4.25-53.12%
30%+
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_market_anchor17741.18%952.94%-1.50-30.00%
baseline_only4250.00%250.00%-2.00-100.00%
core_only_fallback2150.00%150.00%+0.9190.91%

Shortlist-only

20-29.9%
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_market_anchor351131.43%1851.43%-8.12-73.86%
baseline_only8225.00%562.50%+3.0037.50%
core_only_fallback9333.33%444.44%-2.25-37.50%
30%+
SourceQualifiersWinnersStrike RatePlacesPlace RateSP P/LROI
baseline_market_anchor5240.00%240.00%0.00n/a
core_only_fallback100.00%1100.00%0.00n/a

Overall Segment Insights

Archive-level pockets from the saved win-chance segmentation study. This keeps the broader mile, AW, hurdle, and race-type reads visible on the overall Analysis page.

Window 2026-03-20 to 2026-04-10 Minimum segment sample 5

20-29.9%

Qualifiers: 223
Winners: 56
SR: 25.11%
ROI: 5.35%

30%+

Qualifiers: 34
Winners: 12
SR: 35.29%
ROI: 48.53%

Supportive pockets

Supportive pockets
SegmentQualifiersWinnersSR%ROI%
20-29.9%: mileBeats the 20-29.9% band baseline on ROI (+187.15%) and strike rate (+4.89%).20630.00%192.50%
20-29.9%: flat AWBeats the 20-29.9% band baseline on ROI (+146.04%) and strike rate (+5.45%).361130.56%151.39%
30%+: hurdleBeats the 30%+ band baseline on ROI (+138.97%) and strike rate (+2.21%). Small sample, so treat it directionally.8337.50%187.50%
30%+: stayingBeats the 30%+ band baseline on ROI (+5.50%) and strike rate (+0.19%).311135.48%54.03%

Caution pockets

Caution pockets
SegmentQualifiersWinnersSR%ROI%
20-29.9%: otherTrails the 20-29.9% band baseline on ROI (-57.20%) and does not improve strike rate (-2.89%). Baseline ROI for the band is 5.35%.27622.22%-51.85%
20-29.9%: noviceTrails the 20-29.9% band baseline on ROI (-52.85%) and does not improve strike rate (-5.11%). Baseline ROI for the band is 5.35%.20420.00%-47.50%
20-29.9%: hurdleTrails the 20-29.9% band baseline on ROI (-45.49%) and does not improve strike rate (-4.06%). Baseline ROI for the band is 5.35%.571221.05%-40.14%
30%+: flat AWTrails the 30%+ band baseline on ROI (-86.03%) and does not improve strike rate (-1.96%). Baseline ROI for the band is 48.53%. Small sample, so treat it directionally.6233.33%-37.50%
20-29.9%: stayingTrails the 20-29.9% band baseline on ROI (-21.61%) and does not improve strike rate (-0.64%). Baseline ROI for the band is 5.35%.1884624.47%-16.26%

Core Win Chance Accuracy

Average core-backed predicted win chance is reasonably close to the actual strike rate, so the first-pass model is directionally calibrated.

Core fair odds are roughly aligned on the current sample

Predicted Core Win %

Average: 21.62%
Matched: 573

Actual Win %

Average: 23.04%
Winners: 132

Prediction Gap

Gap: -1.42%
Core fair % bandMatchedAvg predictedWinnersActual win %Gap
0-9.9%996.83%88.08%-1.25%
10-19.9%23014.11%3716.09%-1.98%
20-29.9%10923.98%2724.77%-0.79%
30%+13543.35%6044.44%-1.09%

Signal Insights

Bucket-level signal review that was previously shown on the results page, now kept with the rest of the interpretation layer.

Field size

Performance by number of runners

Bucket
2-7
Matched
206
Winners
59
Win %
28.64%
Placed
33
Place %
16.02%
SP +/-
-40.33
ROI
-19.58%
Bucket
8-15
Matched
329
Winners
68
Win %
20.67%
Placed
92
Place %
27.96%
SP +/-
+28.04
ROI
8.52%
Bucket
16+
Matched
38
Winners
5
Win %
13.16%
Placed
3
Place %
7.89%
SP +/-
-7.92
ROI
-20.84%

Race class

Performance by exact race class / grade where available

Bucket
Class 1
Matched
98
Winners
21
Win %
21.43%
Placed
20
Place %
20.41%
SP +/-
+10.87
ROI
11.09%
Bucket
Class 2
Matched
59
Winners
9
Win %
15.25%
Placed
13
Place %
22.03%
SP +/-
-9.61
ROI
-16.29%
Bucket
Class 3
Matched
47
Winners
12
Win %
25.53%
Placed
11
Place %
23.40%
SP +/-
-6.83
ROI
-14.53%
Bucket
Class 4
Matched
186
Winners
51
Win %
27.42%
Placed
44
Place %
23.66%
SP +/-
+31.60
ROI
16.99%
Bucket
Class 5
Matched
112
Winners
19
Win %
16.96%
Placed
24
Place %
21.43%
SP +/-
-49.65
ROI
-44.33%
Bucket
Class 6
Matched
29
Winners
9
Win %
31.03%
Placed
6
Place %
20.69%
SP +/-
+17.00
ROI
58.62%
Bucket
Unclassified
Matched
42
Winners
11
Win %
26.19%
Placed
10
Place %
23.81%
SP +/-
-13.59
ROI
-32.36%

Race overlap

Performance when multiple shortlisted runners met in the same race

Bucket
Single pick
Matched
302
Winners
77
Win %
25.50%
Placed
68
Place %
22.52%
SP +/-
-32.32
ROI
-10.70%
Bucket
2 in race
Matched
126
Winners
28
Win %
22.22%
Placed
32
Place %
25.40%
SP +/-
-13.67
ROI
-10.85%
Bucket
3+ in race
Matched
145
Winners
27
Win %
18.62%
Placed
28
Place %
19.31%
SP +/-
+25.78
ROI
17.78%

Finish status

How selections ended the race, including non-finishers

Bucket
Winner
Matched
132
Winners
132
Win %
100.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
+420.79
ROI
318.78%
Bucket
Placed
Matched
128
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
128
Place %
100.00%
SP +/-
-128.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
Finished unplaced
Matched
274
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-274.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
PU
Matched
30
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-30.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
UR
Matched
2
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-2.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
F
Matched
7
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-7.00
ROI
-100.00%
Bucket
BD
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
RO
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
Other non-finisher
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Beaten distance

How competitive selections were by finishing margin

Bucket
0-2L
Matched
132
Winners
132
Win %
100.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
+420.79
ROI
318.78%
Bucket
2-5L
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
5-10L
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
10L+
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
Non-finisher
Matched
39
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-39.00
ROI
-100.00%

Trainer month

Exploratory signal review

Bucket
10
Matched
573
Winners
132
Win %
23.04%
Placed
128
Place %
22.34%
SP +/-
-20.21
ROI
-3.53%
Bucket
15
Matched
573
Winners
132
Win %
23.04%
Placed
128
Place %
22.34%
SP +/-
-20.21
ROI
-3.53%
Bucket
20
Matched
308
Winners
78
Win %
25.32%
Placed
65
Place %
21.10%
SP +/-
-7.36
ROI
-2.39%
Bucket
25
Matched
132
Winners
34
Win %
25.76%
Placed
30
Place %
22.73%
SP +/-
-5.02
ROI
-3.80%
Bucket
30
Matched
77
Winners
23
Win %
29.87%
Placed
16
Place %
20.78%
SP +/-
+22.12
ROI
28.73%

Jockey month

Exploratory signal review

Bucket
10
Matched
469
Winners
112
Win %
23.88%
Placed
107
Place %
22.81%
SP +/-
-14.86
ROI
-3.17%
Bucket
15
Matched
334
Winners
87
Win %
26.05%
Placed
72
Place %
21.56%
SP +/-
-1.01
ROI
-0.30%
Bucket
20
Matched
180
Winners
49
Win %
27.22%
Placed
35
Place %
19.44%
SP +/-
-9.91
ROI
-5.54%
Bucket
25
Matched
130
Winners
40
Win %
30.77%
Placed
24
Place %
18.46%
SP +/-
-12.52
ROI
-9.63%
Bucket
30
Matched
68
Winners
22
Win %
32.35%
Placed
14
Place %
20.59%
SP +/-
-20.79
ROI
-30.57%

Signal base %

Trainer/jockey base only

Bucket
10
Matched
573
Winners
132
Win %
23.04%
Placed
128
Place %
22.34%
SP +/-
-20.21
ROI
-3.53%
Bucket
15
Matched
475
Winners
112
Win %
23.58%
Placed
104
Place %
21.89%
SP +/-
-26.50
ROI
-5.58%
Bucket
20
Matched
229
Winners
67
Win %
29.26%
Placed
50
Place %
21.83%
SP +/-
-21.61
ROI
-9.44%
Bucket
25
Matched
114
Winners
38
Win %
33.33%
Placed
22
Place %
19.30%
SP +/-
-0.63
ROI
-0.55%
Bucket
30
Matched
40
Winners
16
Win %
40.00%
Placed
3
Place %
7.50%
SP +/-
-2.07
ROI
-5.17%

Horse boost

Horse-form uplift

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
2
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
3
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a
Bucket
4
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Ranked %

Final ordering score

Bucket
10
Matched
573
Winners
132
Win %
23.04%
Placed
128
Place %
22.34%
SP +/-
-20.21
ROI
-3.53%
Bucket
15
Matched
475
Winners
112
Win %
23.58%
Placed
104
Place %
21.89%
SP +/-
-26.50
ROI
-5.58%
Bucket
20
Matched
229
Winners
67
Win %
29.26%
Placed
50
Place %
21.83%
SP +/-
-21.61
ROI
-9.44%
Bucket
25
Matched
114
Winners
38
Win %
33.33%
Placed
22
Place %
19.30%
SP +/-
-0.63
ROI
-0.55%
Bucket
30
Matched
40
Winners
16
Win %
40.00%
Placed
3
Place %
7.50%
SP +/-
-2.07
ROI
-5.17%

Value verdict

Internal fair-odds model

Bucket
1
Matched
74
Winners
11
Win %
14.86%
Placed
15
Place %
20.27%
SP +/-
+70.00
ROI
94.59%

Short verdict

Internal fair-odds model

Bucket
1
Matched
69
Winners
20
Win %
28.99%
Placed
16
Place %
23.19%
SP +/-
-6.13
ROI
-8.88%

Value edge %

Internal fair-odds model

Bucket
n/a
Matched
481
Winners
109
Win %
22.66%
Placed
104
Place %
21.62%
SP +/-
-2.49
ROI
-0.52%
Bucket
10
Matched
71
Winners
10
Win %
14.08%
Placed
13
Place %
18.31%
SP +/-
+54.00
ROI
76.06%
Bucket
20
Matched
65
Winners
9
Win %
13.85%
Placed
10
Place %
15.38%
SP +/-
+49.00
ROI
75.38%

Weighted to Win

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
3
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-3.00
ROI
-100.00%

Beaten Fav LTO

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
12
Winners
3
Win %
25.00%
Placed
1
Place %
8.33%
SP +/-
-1.02
ROI
-8.50%

Headgear

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
37
Winners
10
Win %
27.03%
Placed
1
Place %
2.70%
SP +/-
+8.71
ROI
23.54%

Class dropper

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
4
Winners
1
Win %
25.00%
Placed
1
Place %
25.00%
SP +/-
-2.50
ROI
-62.50%

Recent winner

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
0
Winners
0
Win %
n/a
Placed
0
Place %
n/a
SP +/-
n/a
ROI
n/a

Stable switcher

ATR Smart Stats

Bucket
1
Matched
1
Winners
0
Win %
0.00%
Placed
0
Place %
0.00%
SP +/-
-1.00
ROI
-100.00%

Monthly Analysis Subset

Compact month-by-month analysis view so the archive-level read can still be checked in smaller chunks without leaving the overall page.

March 2026

12 settled day(s) from 2026-03-20 to 2026-03-31.
Matched rows: 133 | Winners: 26

Strike rate

Winners: 26
Win %: 19.55%

SP returns

ROI: 11.27%
Profit: +16.00

Captured returns

ROI: 39.97%
Profit: +39.97

Value subset

Runners: 19
Win %: 26.32%
Core fair odds are roughly aligned on the current sample

Core win chance accuracy

Predicted: 19.25%
Actual: 19.55%
Gap: -0.30%

Monthly note

Average core-backed predicted win chance is reasonably close to the actual strike rate, so the first-pass model is directionally calibrated.

April 2026

30 settled day(s) from 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-30.
Matched rows: 394 | Winners: 90

Strike rate

Winners: 90
Win %: 22.84%

SP returns

ROI: -21.15%
Profit: -94.96

Captured returns

ROI: -12.55%
Profit: -56.35

Value subset

Runners: 55
Win %: 10.91%
Core fair odds are roughly aligned on the current sample

Core win chance accuracy

Predicted: 21.97%
Actual: 22.84%
Gap: -0.87%

Monthly note

Average core-backed predicted win chance is reasonably close to the actual strike rate, so the first-pass model is directionally calibrated.

May 2026

7 settled day(s) from 2026-05-01 to 2026-05-07.
Matched rows: 46 | Winners: 16

Strike rate

Winners: 16
Win %: 34.78%

SP returns

ROI: -24.54%
Profit: -13.25

Captured returns

ROI: 0.50%
Profit: +0.27

Value subset

Runners: 0
Win %: n/a
Core fair odds are too conservative on the current sample

Core win chance accuracy

Predicted: 25.46%
Actual: 34.78%
Gap: -9.32%

Monthly note

Actual winner strike rate is materially above the average core-backed predicted win chance, so the model is undershooting the shortlist.