ATR Weighted to Win
2026-10-04 · UK & Ireland
ATR complete; Racing Post pending
All published Weighted to Win selections have C&D evidence. Racing Post figures may be older or unavailable.
- Racing Post statistics pending: 8 of 68 cells missing or stale.
COMPLETE · 17 captured selections · 10 confirmed C&D · 0 unknown · 15 declared at captureLatest attempt: 2026-10-04T13:09:02.854107+00:00. Saved captures retain their original age.
Yes = verified C&D winner. No badge = no C&D winner indication in the inspected block. Unknown = evidence unavailable. The table order is descriptive, not a betting recommendation.
Sorted by the equal-weight average of trainer course, trainer distance, jockey course and jockey distance strike rates, highest first. An average is shown only when all four rates are available; otherwise the horse appears below complete rows. This is not an estimated win probability. Racing Post figures show wins/runs and capture dates; stale figures are labelled.
| Trainer/jockey avg | Course | Time | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Previous OR | Current OR | Drop | C&D | Trainer course | Trainer distance | Jockey course | Jockey distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.25% | Kelso | 14:20 | Starlytedeclared | L Russell & M Scudamore | Patrick Wadge | 102 | 96 | 6 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 10 runs, 2 wins, 1 place, 20% CD has previously won at this course and distance Course: 18 runs, 3 wins, 1 place, 16.67% C has previously won at this course Distance: 11 runs, 2 wins, 1 place, 18.18% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:03:57.831000+00:00 | 15% · 8/54 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 12% · 11/94 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 20% · 13/66 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 14% · 22/158 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 9.00% | Curragh | 16:15 | Mint Mannon_runner | P J F Murphy | Chris Hayes | 71 | 67 | 4 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 4 runs, 1 win, 0 places, 25% CD has previously won at this course and distance Course: 7 runs, 1 win, 1 place, 14.29% C has previously won at this course Distance: 17 runs, 2 wins, 7 places, 11.76% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:05:34.059000+00:00 | 9% · 3/32 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 11% · 7/65 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 8% · 39/512 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 8% · 37/465 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 8.25% | Curragh | 17:25 | Rhythm Kingdeclared | M Fahey | Reese Holohan | 78 | 65 | 13 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 2 runs, 1 win, 0 places, 50% CD has a 50% or better record at this course and distance Course: 6 runs, 1 win, 0 places, 16.67% C has previously won at this course Distance: 10 runs, 2 wins, 1 place, 20% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:07:36.774000+00:00 | 5% · 3/60 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 14% · 22/161 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1651-2090 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 3% · 1/35 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 11% · 8/71 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1651-2090 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 7.50% | Uttoxeter | 16:56 | A Dublin Jobdeclared | S-J Davies | James Best | 107 | 88 | 19 | No badgeEvidenceno cd winner badgeRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:08:50.346000+00:00 | 5% · 1/22 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Uttoxeter · category / CHASE · captured 2026-10-04 | 10% · 5/50 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4951-5830 · category / CHASE · captured 2026-10-04 | 3% · 1/31 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Uttoxeter · category / CHASE · captured 2026-10-04 | 12% · 24/207 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4951-5830 · category / CHASE · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 7.00% | Curragh | 16:15 | Tawaazondeclared | J A Kinsella | Keithen Kennedy | 65 | 57 | 8 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 8 runs, 1 win, 1 place, 12.5% CD has previously won at this course and distance Course: 11 runs, 2 wins, 2 places, 18.18% C has previously won at this course Distance: 37 runs, 5 wins, 7 places, 13.51% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:05:34.059000+00:00 | 12% · 4/34 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 4% · 2/49 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 5% · 5/92 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 7% · 6/81 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 6.75% | Curragh | 16:15 | Go Athleticodeclared | A McGuinness | Ronan Whelan | 86 | 73 | 13 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 12 runs, 2 wins, 2 places, 16.67% CD has previously won at this course and distance Course: 17 runs, 2 wins, 3 places, 11.76% C has previously won at this course Distance: 28 runs, 4 wins, 8 places, 14.29% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:05:34.059000+00:00 | 4% · 15/346 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 9% · 37/415 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 6% · 23/390 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 8% · 26/341 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 6.75% | Kelso | 14:20 | Bold Lightnon_runner | L Russell & M Scudamore | Gregor Walkingshaw | 123 | 112 | 11 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 2 runs, 1 win, 0 places, 50% CD has a 50% or better record at this course and distance Course: 3 runs, 2 wins, 0 places, 66.67% C has a 50% or better record at this course Distance: 2 runs, 1 win, 0 places, 50% D has a 50% or better record at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:03:57.831000+00:00 | 15% · 8/54 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 12% · 11/94 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 0% · 0/3 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 0% · 0/13 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 6.50% | Curragh | 16:15 | Apache Outlawdeclared | A McGuinness | Adam Caffrey | 84 | 68 | 16 | No badgeEvidenceCourse and Distance: 13 runs, 0 wins, 2 places, 0% CD has previously placed at this course and distance Course: 21 runs, 1 win, 3 places, 4.76% C has previously won at this course Distance: 29 runs, 3 wins, 5 places, 10.34% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:05:34.059000+00:00 | 4% · 15/346 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 9% · 37/415 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 5% · 10/187 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 8% · 17/203 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 6.25% | Curragh | 16:15 | Jon Riggensdeclared | E Lynam | James Ryan | 81 | 72 | 9 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 18 runs, 2 wins, 2 places, 11.11% CD has previously won at this course and distance Course: 27 runs, 3 wins, 3 places, 11.11% C has previously won at this course Distance: 27 runs, 3 wins, 5 places, 11.11% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:05:34.059000+00:00 | 6% · 10/158 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 9% · 24/264 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 5% · 10/197 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 5% · 14/295 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 6.25% | Curragh | 17:25 | Titaniumdeclared | Ciaran Murphy | Sadhbh Tormey | 87 | 73 | 14 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 6 runs, 1 win, 0 places, 16.67% CD has previously won at this course and distance Course: 7 runs, 1 win, 0 places, 14.29% C has previously won at this course Distance: 22 runs, 7 wins, 4 places, 31.82% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:07:36.774000+00:00 | 6% · 3/50 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 8% · 15/186 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1651-2090 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 11% · 2/18 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 0% · 0/37 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1651-2090 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 5.75% | Kelso | 16:40 | Lone Stardeclared | P A Kirby | Oscar Palmer | 91 | 88 | 3 | No badgeEvidenceno cd winner badgeRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:04:33.199000+00:00 | 7% · 2/30 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 11% · 22/194 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 0% · 0/2 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 5% · 1/22 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 3.75% | Curragh | 16:15 | Smoke Them Outdeclared | T G McCourt | Terry Casey | 75 | 67 | 8 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 3 runs, 2 wins, 0 places, 66.67% CD has a 50% or better record at this course and distance Course: 9 runs, 2 wins, 0 places, 22.22% C has previously won at this course Distance: 12 runs, 3 wins, 1 place, 25% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:05:34.059000+00:00 | 4% · 3/68 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 7% · 10/140 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 0% · 0/17 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 4% · 1/24 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1211-1430 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 |
| 3.75% | Kelso | 16:40 | Malangendeclared | Miss L Harrison | Dominic Hislop | 84 | 75 | 9 | No badgeEvidenceno cd winner badgeRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:04:33.199000+00:00 | 0% · 0/8 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 5% · 4/75 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 0% · 0/9 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 10% · 2/21 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 |
| UnknownOne or more rates unavailable | Curragh | 16:50 | Satono Chevalierdeclared | M K Flannery | Ms E Costello | 79 | 75 | 4 | No badgeEvidenceno cd winner badgeRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:06:23.876000+00:00 | 0% · 0/1 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 18% · 2/11 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 2531-2970 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | Unknown — unresolved identity | Unknown — unresolved identity |
| UnknownOne or more rates unavailable | Curragh | 17:25 | Loingseoirdeclared | M C Grassick | S A Wallace | 66 | 63 | 3 | YesEvidenceCourse and Distance: 8 runs, 2 wins, 0 places, 25% CD has previously won at this course and distance Course: 28 runs, 3 wins, 2 places, 10.71% C has previously won at this course Distance: 21 runs, 2 wins, 3 places, 9.52% D has previously won at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:07:36.774000+00:00 | 8% · 11/143 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Curragh · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | 2% · 2/85 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 1651-2090 · category / OVERALL · captured 2026-10-04 | Unknown — unresolved identity | Unknown — unresolved identity |
| UnknownOne or more rates unavailable | Kelso | 16:40 | Luminariesdeclared | Ewan Whillans | Charlie Maggs | 94 | 76 | 18 | No badgeEvidenceno cd winner badgeRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:04:33.199000+00:00 | 13% · 6/47 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 14% · 11/76 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | Unknown — ambiguous identity | Unknown — ambiguous identity |
| UnknownOne or more rates unavailable | Kelso | 16:40 | Theirshegoesdeclared | A M Thomson | Leah Norcei | 93 | 90 | 3 | No badgeEvidenceCourse and Distance: 4 runs, 0 wins, 2 places, 0% CD has previously placed at this course and distance Course: 8 runs, 0 wins, 2 places, 0% C has previously placed at this course Distance: 4 runs, 0 wins, 2 places, 0% D has previously placed at this distanceRacecard captured: 2026-10-04T13:04:33.199000+00:00 | 15% · 13/86 · 2022–2026 · fresh · Kelso · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | 10% · 15/143 · 2022–2026 · fresh · 4291-4950 · category / HURDLE · captured 2026-10-04 | Unknown — unresolved identity | Unknown — unresolved identity |
selections shown
Meeting coverage
- Curragh — ok · 10 selectionsATR updated: Sunday 4 October 2026 at 10:35 · captured: 2026-10-04T12:59:06.416000+00:00
- Kelso — ok · 6 selectionsATR updated: Sunday 4 October 2026 at 10:31 · captured: 2026-10-04T12:59:41.825000+00:00
- Killarney — empty · 0 selectionsATR updated: Sunday 4 October 2026 at 10:32 · captured: 2026-10-04T13:00:51.173000+00:00 ["weighted_to_win_section_absent_assumed_none"]
- Uttoxeter — ok · 1 selectionsATR updated: Sunday 4 October 2026 at 10:32 · captured: 2026-10-04T13:01:59.763000+00:00